ANALISIS KAUSALITAS ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INVESTASI PEMERINTAH DI JAWA TIMUR PERIODE 1975 - 2005

VIDYA VICA ARDIARINI, 040318008 (2009) ANALISIS KAUSALITAS ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INVESTASI PEMERINTAH DI JAWA TIMUR PERIODE 1975 - 2005. Skripsi thesis, UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA.

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Abstract

Dalam teori ekonomi pembangunan diketahui bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan investasi mempunyai hubungan timbal balik. Hubungan timbal balik tersebut terjadi oleh karena di satu pihak, semakin tinggi pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, berarti semakin besar bagian pendapatan yang bisa ditabung, sehingga investasi yang tercipta semakin besar pula. Dalam kasus ini, investasi merupakan fungsi dari pertumbuhan ekonomi. Di lain pihak, semakin besar investasi suatu negara, akan semakin besar pula tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bisa dicapai. Dengan demikian, pertumbuhan merupakan fungsi investasi.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui arah hubungan kausal antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan investasi pemerintah dengan menggunakan data time series di Jawa Timur pada periode 1975 - 2005. Metodologi yang dipakai adalah dengan menggunakan kausalitas Granger yang dipadukan dengan penentuan lag optimal yang menggunakan estimasi VAR. Hasil dari penelitian ini menemukan bahwa antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan investasi pemerintah mempunyai hubungan yang jointly determined (saling menentukan). Implikasi kebijakan dari adanya hubungan timbal balik antara tingkat investasi dan tingkat pendapatan tersebut adalah pada pembuatan proyeksi atau perkiraan kebutuhan investasi tahunan dan target pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dengan memegang asumsi bahwa hubungan timbal balik tersebut terjadi, maka dalam membuat proyeksi investasi harus memperhitungkan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan sebaliknya dalam memproyeksikan angka pertumbuhan ekonomi, variabel investasi harus dijadikan salah satu faktor penentu. Translation: In the theory of development economic it was known that the economic growth level and investment has reciprocal relationship. That reciprocal relationship occurred because in one side, the higher of economic growth of such country, the bigger revenue that can be saved thereby the bigger investment that was created. In this case, investment is one function of economic growth. In the other side, higher investment in one country, the bigger economic growth level that can be reached. Therefore, the growth is investment function. This study was aimed to know the direction of causal relation between economic growth and public investment growth with time series data in East Java in the period of 1975-2005. Methodology that used was with Granger causality with the determination of optimum lag that uses estimation of VAR. The result of this study found that between economic growth and public investment growth has jointly determined correlation.The policy implication from the existence of reciprocal relation between investment level and income level was on the projection making or estimation of annual investment need and economic growth target. With assumption that reciprocal relationship was occurred, thereby in the making of investment projection must be calculated the economic growth variable, and on the opposite in projecting the economic growth number, investment variable must become one of determining factors.

Item Type: Thesis (Skripsi)
Additional Information: KKB KK-2 C 12 / 09 Ard a
Uncontrolled Keywords: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; INVESTMENTS
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4501-6051 Investment, capital formation, speculation
K Law > K Law (General) > K1-7720 Law in general. Comparative and uniform law. Jurisprudence > K(520)-5582 Comparative law. International uniform law > K3820-3836 Economic constitution, policy, planning, and development
Divisions: 04. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Ekonomi Pembangunan
Creators:
CreatorsNIM/NIDN
VIDYA VICA ARDIARINI, 040318008UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
ContributionNameNIDN/NIDK/NUP
ContributorSOEDARTO, Drs., M.Ec.UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User: Nn Luluk Lusiana
Date Deposited: 08 Oct 2009 12:00
Last Modified: 26 Sep 2016 04:38
URI: http://repository.unair.ac.id/id/eprint/2255
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