The local economy and re-election of incumbent district leaders in Indonesia

Rumayya, - and Anu Rammohan, - and Rudi Purwono, Dr and Iman Harymawan, - (2020) The local economy and re-election of incumbent district leaders in Indonesia. Heliyon, 6 (5). pp. 1-9. ISSN 2405-8440

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This paper tests whether economic growth and unemployment rates matter in the re-election of incumbent district leaders in Indonesia. Applying the Probit and Hekcprobit model on Indonesia's local direct elections during 2005–2013, we find that both unemployment and GDP per capita growth has an impact on election outcomes in the election year. However, for incumbent district leaders' it is only the average annual GDP per capita growth that matters for re-election. However, when we separate luck (district's performance due to regional or national economy) from competence (district's own economic performance), we find that competence matters for re-election in the election year, while luck matters for re-election in the average annual performance of the incumbents' tenure. The findings suggest that voters put more attention and vigilance on the incumbents' performances in the last year of their tenure, rather than on their whole tenure.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Re-election, Economic growth; Unemployment; Local election; Indonesia; Economics; Behavioral economics; International economics; Public economics; Microeconomics; Social policy; Political science
Subjects: H Social Sciences
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: 04. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Rumayya, -NIDN0009018302
Anu Rammohan, -UNSPECIFIED
Iman Harymawan, -NIDN0020048403
Depositing User: Tn Sugeng Riyanto
Date Deposited: 05 Feb 2022 07:54
Last Modified: 05 Feb 2022 07:54
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