Muryani, Dr., SE., M.Si., MEMD. (2014) The Government Policy Deal With Bird Flu and The Economy: CGE Model Approach (Computable General Equilibrium Model). In: Preceeding International Conference On Tropical and Coastal Region Eco-Development 2014, 11-13 Agustus 2014, Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. (In Press)

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Abstract

The negative impact of the outbreak of bird flu on economic secto~ in the sectoral and macro research will be analyzed using CGE models (Computable General Equilibrium). H is also analyz.!S the government policy of how to handle the problem deaJ with Avian flu outt-,.eak. The result of the simulation studies indicate that the sector directly affected by the outbreak of bird flu poultry scct()rs are a traditi')naJ, medium large poultry meat and eRgs. Wrule the sectors that are indircctJy affected sectors arc rice, com, soybean ad agricuJturaJ, other livestock, paper i.ndustry, fertiliz.er industry, chemical industry, pharmacy, restaurant and services. Next the result of the simulation showed that the decrease in tl1e production of poultty meat sector (traditional and rr..xhurn-!argc) and egg sectors impact e,;i the micro and macro aspects of the economv. On the micro ,eve! in domestic marlc:et there are decreased production and increased prices in the pcuJtry sector, q;gs. other farms, restaurants and services. Wrule in the roreign marle~t there are decreased exports as well as imports. Similarly. there is a decline in consumption by the entire group of household due to a decline in the accept'lllce i,y aJI groups of households and firms Government revenue also declined due to a decrease in taxes from hou,;cholds and firms. So it can be said the are a decline in the income of hvuseholds and the government At the macro level there arc a decline in GDP and a de<;line in the investmt"r.t There are no change in the price ()f capital and labor . Similarly, the interest rate and the inflation rate arc fixed. Regarding the govel'Tirneot policy in solving this problem, some conclusions can be made, for examples: some sectors can improve their revenues and some others not, including institutions and productio:t factors.

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